Nigeria poverty rate projected at 63% in 2026

Key facts

Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to stand at 63% in 2026.

The rate is expected to remain broadly unchanged rather than decline.

The projection comes despite reported improvements in Nigeria’s macroeconomic stability.

The available evidence does not identify the institution that produced the projection or the methodology used.

Why it matters

The projection indicates that greater stability in Nigeria’s wider economy is not yet expected to reduce the country’s poverty rate in 2026. A broadly unchanged rate of 63% would mean that the reported macroeconomic improvement has not translated into a measurable fall in the proportion of people living in poverty. The supplied evidence does not show which policies or economic conditions would be needed to alter that outlook.

Nigeria’s poverty rate is projected to remain broadly unchanged at 63% in 2026, according to a BusinessDay Nigeria report. The forecast suggests that recent improvements in macroeconomic stability are not yet expected to produce a decline in the proportion of Nigerians living in poverty.

The contrast between a more stable macroeconomic environment and a persistently high poverty rate highlights the limits of assessing economic conditions through headline stability alone. Based on the available report, the expected gains at the macroeconomic level have not been accompanied by a projected reduction in poverty during 2026.

Important details behind the estimate are not included in the supplied evidence. It does not identify the organisation responsible for the projection, define the poverty measure being used, state the period against which the rate is considered broadly unchanged, or provide the underlying number of people covered by the 63% figure.

The evidence also does not explain which aspects of Nigeria’s macroeconomic position have improved or why those changes have not altered the poverty projection. It therefore remains unclear whether the rate could change as more economic data become available or as conditions develop during the year.

For households and policymakers, the central implication of the forecast is that economic stabilisation and poverty reduction are not presented as moving together. While the wider economy is reported to be becoming more stable, the share of the population classified as poor is still projected to stay at about the same level.